D-FW house costs now solely rising at a pre-pandemic tempo

After record-setting growth over the last two years, home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth are now only growing at a pre-pandemic pace.

The rate of year-over-year single-family home price growth in D-FW was at or below about 10% from the Great Recession to January 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That’s when local price appreciation skyrocketed to its height in April 2022, when prices were up 31% from a year before.

But in December, D-FW home prices were back to single-digit percentage growth, up only 7.9% from a year before, according to the latest reading of the index. Prices were down 1.1% from November.

Nationally, home prices were down 0.8% from November to December but were still up 5.8% year over year. Price growth cooled down as buying activity dwindled.

“Buyers and sellers ended the year on a discouraging note, with sales declining as mortgage rates soared, new listings sputtered out and active inventory pooled up as homes stayed on the market longer,” said Zillow economist Nicole Bachaud in a statement.

Local home prices peaked in June 2022 and have since declined about 7.6%, the index shows. National prices have dropped 4.4% from their June peak.

All 20 metro areas on the index saw month-over-month declines in December, but only two saw year-over year declines. Miami, Tampa and Atlanta had the largest year-over-year price increases despite the slowdown.

The Case-Shiller index is a three-month moving average that compares sales price changes of specific properties over time. While it is a couple of months behind current market conditions, the index’s price estimate is considered more accurate than home sales data from agents, which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.

Many buyers have returned to the D-FW housing market amid lower prices and mortgage rates than in previous months. The median price of a single-family home in D-FW listed with real estate agents was $380,000 in January, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.

Still, CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp said in a statement that “while fallen mortgage rates offered some early signs of optimism for the upcoming spring home buying season, persistent inflation is proving challenging and may lead to higher mortgage rates during the spring months.”